Indian Forum for Water Adroit

Observe surface pressure over Arabian sea to predict arrival of monsoon, suggests a new study


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Interesting article...

Today, the Indian Meteorological Department declares the date of onset of monsoon over the state of Kerala. “Onset of monsoon over Kerala is predicted using a statistical model which takes into account several factors like surface temperature and pressure over certain regions of the world. The IMD's model shows a good prediction skill of onset over Kerala, with an error of about 4-days”, says Prof. Arindam Chakraborty of IISc and a co-author of the study. But what about the rest of India? Turns out, monsoon may not arrive in Central India for a fixed number of days after it arrives in Kerala!

This is the first time a study provides a mechanism that explains the year to year variation of the arrival of monsoon over central India. “The west Asian surface pressure can be tracked as early as March and results in this study could be used to develop real time prediction systems for the onset of monsoon over central India. This can be instrumental in planning for the water and agricultural resources”, signs off Dr. Chakraborty, talking about the importance of his research.
Thanks & Regards

Sonali Pattanayak
Research Associate
Divecha Center for Climate Change