Indian Forum for Water Adroit

Detection and attribution of climate change signal in South India maximum and minimum temperatures

Subir Paul

  • *****
  • Thanked: 49 times
  • +9/-0
    • View Profile
  • Institute : Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
  • Programming language : Matlab, R
The work is carried out by Dr. Sonali Pattanayak along with Prof. Ravi S. Nanjundiah and Prof. D. Nagesh Kumar titled "Detection and attribution of climate change signal in South India maximum and minimum temperatures" got published in the Climate Research.

Abstract: South India has seen significant changes in climate. Previous studies have shown that southern part of India is more susceptible to impact of climate change than the rest of the country. A rigorous climate model-based detection and attribution analysis is performed to determine the root cause of the recent changes in climate over South India using fingerprint analysis. Modified Mann-Kendall test signalized non-stationariness in Tmax and Tmin in most of the season during the period 1950-2012. The diminishing cloud cover trend might be inducing significant changes in temperature during the considered time period. Significant downward trends in RH during most of the season could act as an evidence of the recent significant warming. The observed seasonal Tmax, Tmin change patterns are strongly associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation. Significant positive associations between South India temperatures and Niño3.4 are found in all the seasons. Deployment of fingerprint approach indicated that the natural internal variability obtained from 14 climate model control simulations could not explain these significant changes in Tmax (post-monsoon) and Tmin (pre- monsoon and monsoon) of South India. Moreover the experiment simulating natural external forcings (solar and volcanic) do not coincide with the observed signal strength. The dominant external factor leading to climate change is GHGs and its impact is eminent compared to other factors such as, land use change and anthropogenic aerosols. Anthropogenic signals are identifiable in observed changes in Tmax and Tmin of South India and these changes can be explained only when anthropogenic forcing are involved.

Sonali can be contacted at iisc.sonali@gmail.com

https://www.int-res.com/prepress/c01530.html
Subir Paul
Research Scholar (PhD)
WR&EE (CE)
IISc Bengaluru
 
The following users thanked this post: Sonali