Indian Forum for Water Adroit

A Multivariate Probabilistic Framework for Tracking the Intertropical Convergence Zone

Pankaj Dey

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  • Institute : Indian Institute of Science
  • Programming language : MATLAB, R
The zone of deep air convection and heavy precipitation in the Earth’s tropics, known as the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), is characterized by seasonal southward and northward movement, following Sun’s radiation, as well as long-term meridional shifts, which greatly affect water availability in many regions around the world. This study proposes and applies a new probabilistic framework to track the ITCZ by jointly considering multiple physical variables to define its location. It also allows for detailed analysis of the intra-annual dynamics in all longitudes of the globe, while being computationally efficient and flexible in its implementation. We reveal a statistically significant southward trend in the location of the ITCZ over the central Pacific.

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