Indian Forum for Water Adroit

Human influence on winter precipitation trends

Pankaj Dey

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  • Institute : Indian Institute of Science
  • Programming language : MATLAB, R
Human influence on winter precipitation trends
« on: March 10, 2019, 06:52:35 PM »
It is difficult to isolate the anthropogenic influence on long‐term precipitation trends due to confounding effects from internal variability. Here we remove the influence of atmospheric circulation variability, which is primarily unforced, from observed precipitation trends using an empirical approach called "dynamical adjustment. This removal isolates the thermodynamic component of observed precipitation trends as a residual. We find that this thermodynamic component is in good agreement with the anthropogenic component determined from historical simulations from climate model simulations. Thus, we conclude that we are able to identify a human influence on observed century‐scale precipitation trends over North America and Eurasia.
Key Points

    1. Removing the influence of atmospheric circulation variability reveals the thermodynamic component of observed precipitation trends
    2. The observed thermodynamic trend is in good agreement with anthropogenically‐forced trends from historical climate model simulations
    3. Our approach provides an alternative to formal “detection and attribution” methods for revealing anthropogenic changes in observations
Link: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL081316
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