Indian Forum for Water Adroit

Talk by Professor B N Goswami

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Talk by Professor B N Goswami
« on: May 01, 2019, 03:39:32 PM »
Seminar: How predictable is the seasonal mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall?

Speaker: Prof. B. N. Goswami

Date and Time: 3:30 pm Friday 3 May

Venue: CAOS Seminar Hall

Abstract: Over a hundred years, the prediction of the quantum of Indian
Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) has remained a grand-challenge problem raising the question whether a fundamental limit on predictability is responsible. With traditional estimates of potential predictability limit (PPL) indicating a low PPL for ISMR, the prediction of ISMR actually looked doomed for some time. A series of model developments and extensive retrospective forecasts of ISMR under the Monsoon Mission came up with a pleasant surprise. The skill of ISMR prediction by an improved coupled model is found to be higher than the traditional estimate of PPL, an apparent paradox! We resolve this paradox and unravel a scientific basis
for much higher PPL for ISMR and a new conceptual framework for ISMR predictability. Compelling evidence is presented to conclude that the ISMR is much more predictable than thought previously and only improved coupled models could realise it.

Tea at 3:15 pm